Live Forecasting System

AIA Forecaster

A multi-agent LLM forecasting system that achieves superforecaster-level performance. Based on the Bridgewater AIA Labs research achieving expert-level judgmental forecasting at scale.

Featured Markets

Live prediction markets tracked by the AIA Forecaster

Polymarket Kalshi
kalshi Federal Reserve Rates
Resolves May 5, 2027

Will the upper bound of the federal funds rate be above 4.00% following the Fed's Apr 28, 2027 meeting?

Market Consensus
15%
AIA Forecast
4%
Updated 1 month, 2 weeks ago
Agent Reasoning

Ensemble based on 3 agents (agent_2=0.10, agent_3=0.10). supervisor: The majority of projections from sources like TD Economics, Trading Economics, Fed dot plots, and forecasts from J.P. Morgan suggest that the federal funds rate will be in a range around 3.25% by yearend 2027, which is below 4.00%. However, there are …

kalshi Federal Reserve Rates
Resolves May 5, 2027

Will the upper bound of the federal funds rate be above 4.25% following the Fed's Apr 28, 2027 meeting?

Market Consensus
10%
AIA Forecast
5%
Updated 1 month, 2 weeks ago
Agent Reasoning

Ensemble based on 3 agents (agent_3=0.10, agent_2=0.15). supervisor: The recent projections from the Federal Reserve, including the December 2025 Fed Dot Plot, suggest that the upper bound of the federal funds rate will be around 3.25% by yearend 2027. This projection is consistent across multiple sources and indicates a low …

kalshi Other Economics

yes Luciano Darderi,yes Sebastian Baez,yes Juan Manuel Cerundolo,yes Mariano Navone,yes Dortmund,yes Leverkusen,yes Frankfurt,yes Joselyne Edwards,yes Alden Coria,yes Melquizael Costa,yes Yadier Delvalle,yes Carlos Leal Miranda,yes Alibi Idiris,yes Michel Pereira,yes Jacobe Smith,yes Ante Delija,yes Anthony Hernandez,yes Jean-Paul Lebosnoyani

Market Consensus
%
AIA Forecast
50%
Updated 1 month, 2 weeks ago
Agent Reasoning

Ensemble based on 3 agents (agent_1=0.50, agent_2=0.50). supervisor: The original question does not provide enough context or clarity about what is being forecasted, leading to a default probability of 0.5. There are no specific precedents or foundational data provided that could inform a more accurate assessment.

manifold Other Economics

Will any EA charity get a grant more than twice the median grant for Project for Awesome 2026?

Market Consensus
%
AIA Forecast
21%
Updated 1 month, 2 weeks ago
Agent Reasoning

Ensemble based on 5 agents (agent_3=0.10, agent_1=0.30). supervisor: While historical data suggests some larger grants, the exact distribution for 2026 is uncertain.

Data Sources

Polymarket
Prediction Market
Kalshi
Prediction Market
Web Search
Real-time News
Financial Data
Market Data

Build Your Own Forecasting Agents

Learn how to build autonomous trading agents in Part 6 of the ML4T workflow. Covers generative AI, multi-agent systems, and production deployment.