AIA Forecaster
A multi-agent LLM forecasting system that achieves superforecaster-level performance. Based on the Bridgewater AIA Labs research achieving expert-level judgmental forecasting at scale.
Featured Markets
Live prediction markets tracked by the AIA Forecaster
Will the upper bound of the federal funds rate be above 3.00% following the Fed's Apr 28, 2027 meeting?
Ensemble based on 3 agents (agent_3=0.97, agent_2=0.85). supervisor: The agents' forecasts range from 0.75 to 0.97. Agent 3 appears overconfident, largely dismissing tail risk, while Agents 1 and 2 incorporate the possibility of rapid cuts. My search on historical frequency of 75bp declines in 11 months did not yield a …
Will the upper bound of the federal funds rate be above 3.00% following the Fed's Mar 17, 2027 meeting?
Ensemble based on 3 agents (agent_2=0.98, agent_1=0.92). supervisor: The ensemble mean p_yes is ~0.93. The supervisor search evidence from the April 2026 FOMC minutes shows a divided committee with a hawkish lean, concerns about persistent inflation, and a significant probability of rate hikes. This suggests that the probability of at …
Will the upper bound of the federal funds rate be above 3.75% following the Fed's Jan 27, 2027 meeting?
Ensemble based on 3 agents (agent_3=0.45, agent_2=0.52). supervisor: Agent aggregate was ~0.49, but agent_2 provided a market-implied probability of 51.5% from CME FedWatch as of May 30, 2026, which directly addresses the question. Supervisor searches revealed that economists in the Bloomberg survey pushed out their timeline for rate cuts due …
Will the rate of core PCE inflation be above 0.3% in April 2026?
Ensemble based on 3 agents (agent_1=0.00, agent_2=0.00). supervisor: The Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) official release on May 28, 2026, explicitly states that 'excluding food and energy, the PCE price index increased 0.2 percent' in April 2026. This figure is directly from the BEA and is below the 0.3% threshold. …
Will real GDP increase by more than 2.5% in Q2 2026?
Ensemble based on 3 agents (agent_2=0.70, agent_1=0.60). supervisor: The ensemble mean (0.567) likely overweights the bullish GDPNow nowcast of 3.8% (May 28). Recent GDPNow final forecasts overestimated the advance estimate by 1.6 pp for Q4 2025 (final nowcast 3.0% vs advance 1.4%) and by ~1.1-1.8 pp for Q1 2026 (initial …
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