AIA Forecaster
A multi-agent LLM forecasting system that achieves superforecaster-level performance. Based on the Bridgewater AIA Labs research achieving expert-level judgmental forecasting at scale.
Featured Markets
Live prediction markets tracked by the AIA Forecaster
Will the upper bound of the federal funds rate be above 3.75% following the Fed's Jan 27, 2027 meeting?
Ensemble based on 3 agents (agent_2=0.90, agent_3=0.18). supervisor: Direct CME FedWatch data for the January 27, 2027 meeting (retrieved 31 July 2026) shows an 86.3% market-implied probability that the target rate will be above 3.75% (38.9% for 3.75–4.00%, 34.2% for 4.00–4.25%, 11.8% for 4.25–4.50%, 1.4% for 4.50–4.75%). Agent 1 incorrectly …
Will real GDP increase by more than 2.5% in Q2 2026?
Ensemble based on 3 agents (agent_1=0.00, agent_2=0.00). supervisor: The BEA released the advance estimate for Q2 2026 real GDP growth on July 30, 2026, at 1.5% SAAR (source: BEA and Atlanta Fed commentary). This is definitively below the 2.5% threshold, so the probability of the estimate exceeding 2.5% is zero. …
Will above 60000 jobs be added in September 2026?
Ensemble based on 3 agents (agent_2=0.55, agent_1=0.47). supervisor: The agents' forecasts aggregate to ~0.50, based on a forecasts.org model implying 47% and a market price implying 60%. The supervisor search did not uncover material new evidence: no September consensus from Bloomberg, and Trading Economics data shows high volatility and past …
Will the 10-year minus 2-year Treasury spread be above 1.00% on any day through December 31, 2026?
Ensemble based on 3 agents (agent_1=0.20, agent_3=0.30). supervisor: Agent 1 incorrectly equated the Kalshi year‑end probability (20%) with the probability of any daily breach, ignoring the any‑touch premium. Agents 2 and 3 correctly adjusted upward to 33% and 30% respectively. The additional evidence provided no material new information, so the …
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Build Your Own Forecasting Agents
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