Chapter 19: Risk Management

Forecast Evaluation with Noisy Volatility Proxies intermediate

You cannot observe true volatility, so every forecast evaluation is really a comparison against a noisy proxy — and the wrong loss function will rank models incorrectly.

You cannot observe true volatility, so every forecast evaluation is really a comparison against a noisy proxy — and the wrong loss function will rank models incorrectly.

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References

Volatility forecast comparison using imperfect volatility proxies
Andrew J. Patton (2011) — Journal of Econometrics
Toward Regime-Aware Risk Forecasts
Kevin Khang (2022) — The Journal of Portfolio Management
Time-Series Techniques: Estimating Volatility
Stephen Marra (2023) — The Journal of Portfolio Management