Multiple Testing and the Researcher’s Trap foundational

Why searching many ideas makes false discoveries and overstated winners inevitable.

Why searching many ideas makes false discoveries and overstated winners inevitable.

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References

Most claimed statistical findings in cross-sectional return predictability are likely true
Andrew Y. Chen (2024)
Type I and Type II Errors of the Sharpe Ratio under Multiple Testing
Marcos López de Prado (2022) — The Journal of Portfolio Management
...and the Cross-Section of Expected Returns
Campbell R. Harvey, Yan Liu, Heqing Zhu (2016) — Review of Financial Studies