Chapter 9: Model-Based Feature Extraction

Uncertainty as a Feature advanced

Why two identical forecasts can imply very different decisions once you look at what the model does not know.

Why two identical forecasts can imply very different decisions once you look at what the model does not know.

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References

milenavuletic/VolGAN
(2025)
Making and Evaluating Point Forecasts
Tilmann Gneiting — Journal of the American Statistical Association
Machine Learning for Probabilistic Prediction (PhD thesis, VALERY MANOKHIN)
Valery Manokhin (2022)
Stock Market Prices Do Not Follow Random Walks: Evidence from a Simple Specification Test
Andrew W. Lo, A. Craig MacKinlay (1988)
Coherent Measures of Risk
Philippe Artzner, Freddy Delbaen, Jean-Marc Eber, David Heath (1999) — Mathematical Finance
Scaling Conditional Autoencoders for Portfolio Optimization via Uncertainty-Aware Factor Selection
Ryan Engel, Yu Chen, Pawel Polak, Ioana Boier (2025) — Proceedings of the 6th ACM International Conference on AI in Finance
Option Momentum
Steven L. Heston, Christopher S. Jones, Mehdi Khorram, Shuaiqi Li, Haitao Mo (2023) — Journal of Finance